Credit Writedowns - Latest Comments in Comprehensive unemployment rate is 17.5%

Re: Comprehensive unemployment rate is 17.5%

Edward Harrison — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:20:00 -0000

Also, my headline should tell you I see the labor market as weak. But again, in context, this is not a negative surprise.

Re: Comprehensive unemployment rate is 17.5%

Edward Harrison — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:19:00 -0000

I'm sorry it read as positive spin. I did not intend it that way.

I get what you're saying, haris. And I know this: the fact that labor market participation is decreasing is a sign of economic weakness - not strength.

My last paragraph is a reflection of how I see the data in context: this is not a game-changer. The labor market is weak, but not deteriorating. It can still be this weak and yet the economy can show a statistical recovery.

Re: Comprehensive unemployment rate is 17.5%

Haris — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:04:00 -0000

Ed, in otherwise good analysis, you miss a very simple fact by spinning labor force participation dropping as a positive!! In a recovery, labor force participation INCREASES as more people who were discouraged get encouraged again. I am surprised that an analyst of your caliber is spinning this as a positive???

Also, note that the birth/death model revisions in 2009 continue to be way out of left field - yet again some stupid economist somewhere in the 90's built some stupid model that uses "numbers" to come up with this and it doesn't seem to be adjusted for changes in the economy.

Re: Comprehensive unemployment rate is 17.5%

LavrentiBeria — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:25:00 -0000

Got to hand it to you, Ed. You can find a silver lining in any cloud. :-)

I don't think I'll ever get used to the fact that the stock market goes up when unemployment levels increase. It really highlights just how hostily arrayed are the people at large on the one hand and the investing classes on the other.